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sport.ORF.at เขาจึงไม่ได้คุมทีมจากข้างสนามในนัดนี้ ส่วนผู้ที่จะคุมทีมแทนยังไม่มีการประกาศชื่อ\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>ในแนวรับ Arjan Malic กองหลังสตวร์ม ถูกแบน 2 นัดจากการใช้กำลัง (หนึ่งนัดรอลงอาญา) ตามรายงานของ sport.ORF.at ทำให้พลาดนัดนี้ และจะกลับมาในลีกเยือน WAC นอกจากนี้ยังมีรายชื่อตัวขาดตาม Fotmob ได้แก่ Daniil Khudyakov (หมดฤดูกาล), Otar Kiteishvili, Leon Grgić, Seedy Jatta (ไม่ทราบกำหนด), Nelson Weiper, Filip Rózga, Emran Soglo (หลายสัปดาห์), Gizo Mamageishvili (1–2 สัปดาห์) และ Jürgen Heil ที่ยังไม่แน่นอน\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>ฝั่งลุสเตเนา ซึ่งมี Markus Mader เป็นโค้ช มีตัวขาดคือ Emmanuel Chukwu (ราว 1 สัปดาห์), Dion Kacuri (หลายสัปดาห์) และ Sacha Delaye (1–2 สัปดาห์) ยังไม่มีรายชื่อตัวจริงของทั้งสองทีมเผยแพร่ก่อนเกม\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>ฟอร์มการเล่นล่าสุด\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>ลุสเตเนา 5 นัดลีกหลังสุด เรียงจากเก่าไปใหม่ แพ้ Austria Wien 1-2 (เยือน), ชนะ Altach 2-0 (บ้าน), แพ้ Hartberg 3-4 (เยือน), แพ้ LASK 0-4 (บ้าน) และแพ้ Rapid Wien 1-5 (เยือน) รวมชนะ 1 แพ้ 4 ยิงได้ 7 เสีย 15 และแพ้ติดกัน 3 นัด ในลีกทีมยังรั้งอันดับ 10 ชนะ 2 เสมอ 2 แพ้ 6 ได้ 12 เสีย 24 มี 8 แต้ม ในบ้านลีก 5 นัด ชนะ 2 เสมอ 1 แพ้ 2 ยิงได้ 5 เสีย 10 แปลว่าแนวรับเสียประตูเฉลี่ย 2 ลูกต่อนัดในบ้านของตัวเอง\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>ทางสตวร์ม 5 นัดหลังสุดทุกรายการ ชนะ Austria Wien 2-0 (เยือน), แพ้ Bournemouth 0-3 (เยือน, ยูโรปาลีก), ชนะ Grazer AK 6-1 (บ้าน), ชนะ Marseille 1-0 (บ้าน, ยูโรปาลีก) และเสมอ Ried 2-2 (บ้าน) รวมชนะ 3 เสมอ 1 แพ้ 1 ยิงได้ 11 เสีย 6 ในลีกอยู่อันดับ 4 ชนะ 5 เสมอ 3 แพ้ 2 ได้ 18 เสีย 12 มี 18 แต้ม สิ่งที่ต้องระวังคือฟอร์มนอกบ้านในลีก 5 นัด ชนะ 2 เสมอ 1 แพ้ 2 ยิงได้ 6 เสีย 7 ซึ่งไม่ได้ดุเดือดเท่าภาพรวม\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>สถิติที่เคยพบกัน\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>สตวร์มไม่แพ้ลุสเตเนา 6 นัดหลังสุด ชนะ 5 เสมอ 1 เริ่มจากถ้วยเมื่อ 30 ต.ค. 2013 ที่ลุสเตเนาแพ้ 0-4 ต่อด้วยลีก 18 ก.ย. 2022 สตวร์มชนะ 2-0, 4 มี.ค. 2023 ลุสเตเนา 0-2 สตวร์ม, 19 ส.ค. 2023 ลุสเตเนา 0-1 สตวร์ม และ 25 พ.ย. 2023 สตวร์มชนะ 2-0 ก่อนจะมาเสมอ 1-1 เมื่อ 22 ส.ค. 2026 ซึ่งเป็นครั้งแรกที่ลุสเตเนายิงสตวร์มได้ในช่วงที่เทียบกันนี้ (5 นัดก่อนหน้า ลุสเตเนาไม่ยิงประตูสตวร์มได้เลย)\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>มุมแท็กติกที่จะชี้ขาด\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>จุดแรกคือการรับของลุสเตเนา ทีมเสียไปถึง 24 ประตูใน 10 นัดลีก และเสีย 4 ลูกหรือมากกว่านั้นถึง 3 จาก 5 นัดหลังสุดในลีก ถ้าสตวร์มได้ประตูแรกเร็ว เกมจะเปิดให้ทีมที่เหนือกว่าทั้งคุณภาพและความต่อเนื่องได้เปรียบ การที่สตวร์มเพิ่งยิงได้ 6 ลูกใส่ Grazer AK เป็นภาพตัวอย่างของศักยภาพเมื่อเกมไหลไปในทางของตัวเอง\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>จุดที่สองคือความไม่เต็มร้อยของสตวร์ม การไม่มี Malic ในแนวรับ และรายชื่อเจ็บที่ยาวทำให้ความลึกของทีมถูกทดสอบ ประกอบกับการไม่มีหัวหน้าโค้ชข้างสนาม ทำให้การปรับเกมระหว่างแข่งขันอาจไม่ลื่นนัก ขณะที่ผลเสมอ 1-1 เมื่อเจอกันในลีกครั้งก่อนบอกว่าลุสเตเนายังมีโอกาสสร้างความยุ่งยากให้ได้\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>วิเคราะห์ราคาบอล\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>ราคาที่ให้สตวร์ม ต่อ 1\u002F1.5 (ลูกควบลูกครึ่ง) หมายความว่า หากสตวร์มชนะตั้งแต่ 2 ลูกขึ้นไป ฝั่งต่อได้เต็มจำนวน ถ้าชนะเพียง 1 ลูกพอดี ฝั่งต่อเสียครึ่ง และฝั่งรองได้ครึ่ง แต่ถ้าเสมอหรือลุสเตเนาชนะ ฝั่งรองได้เต็ม ยังไม่มีข้อมูลราคาไหล จึงไม่นับราคาเป็นปัจจัยหนุนฝั่งใด\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>เมื่อชั่งปัจจัยทั้งสี่ ฟอร์มและตารางหนุนสตวร์ม ประวัติเจอกันหนุนสตวร์ม แต่ด้านผู้เล่นเป็นข้อค้านเพราะสตวร์มมีทั้งตัวเจ็บเยอะ ตัวแบนในแนวรับ และโค้ชไม่ได้ยืนข้างสนาม ส่วนราคาไม่มีหลักฐานหนุน ทำให้มีปัจจัยหนุนสตวร์มเพียงสองด้านที่ชัดเจน ทีเด็ดนี้จึงเป็นการเลือกฝั่งต่อที่มีข้อมูลหนุนจริง แต่ต้องยอมรับความเสี่ยงของราคาลูกควบลูกครึ่งที่ชนะขาดเพียงลูกเดียวก็ได้ไม่เต็ม\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>บทสรุปและทีเด็ด\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>สรุปคือสตวร์มมีทั้งอันดับ ฟอร์ม และสถิติเจอกันเหนือกว่า ส่วนลุสเตเนาแพ้ลีกติดกัน 3 นัดและเสียประตูหนักทั้งในบ้านและนอกบ้าน แม้สตวร์มจะขาดหลายคนและขาด Malic กับโค้ชหลักข้างสนาม แต่คุณภาพโดยรวมยังน่าจะพอให้เก็บชัยชนะได้ เลือกให้สตวร์มชนะ 2 ลูกต่อศูนย์ ซึ่งผ่านราคาลูกควบลูกครึ่งแบบเต็มจำนวน\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>ข้อมูลที่ยังไม่เอื้อให้มั่นใจเต็มที่คือด้านผู้เล่นของสตวร์มและราคาที่ไม่มีหลักฐานหนุน 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